October Copper Cathode Imports Hit Yearly High: Reasons Behind It [SMM Analysis]

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China imported a total of 3.008 million mt of copper cathode from January to October 2024, up 6.67% YoY. Among these, October imports reached 359,300 mt, up 11.43% MoM and 7.67% YoY. From January to October 2024, China exported a total of 429,000 mt of copper cathode, up 70.52% YoY. In October, exports were 10,000 mt, down 36.05% MoM and 36.74% YoY.

In terms of imports, October copper cathode imports totaled 359,300 mt, up 11.43% MoM and 7.67% YoY. Of this, 155,300 mt came from Africa, up 20.41% MoM, accounting for 43.2% of total imports. According to SMM, the total volume of copper cathode from Africa continues to increase MoM, mainly due to concentrated shipping dates in September and October. Another source of increase was Chile, with an additional 19,300 mt MoM, marking a significant seasonal peak. Additionally, some copper cathode was transported back to China from LME warehouses in Asia in October.

In terms of exports, October copper cathode exports were 10,000 mt, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. Due to the complete closure of the export window, only long-term contract copper cathode was arranged for export.

Looking ahead, SMM expects November copper cathode imports to remain relatively unchanged from October. Overall shipments of South American copper were low in Q3. According to SMM's understanding of port schedules, November arrivals of South American copper will continue to increase slightly MoM from October. The total volume from Africa, Japan and South Korea will remain relatively unchanged, but there will be no copper cathode transported back from LME warehouses in November. Therefore, overall, November copper cathode imports are expected to remain flat MoM. In terms of exports, although the SHFE/LME price ratio indicates frequent losses in copper cathode imports, the export window has not opened. Thus, November copper cathode exports are expected to remain at a low level.